Probabilistic Evaluation of Seepage Failure of a Levee Based upon Structural Reliability Theory and Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis
seepage flow analysis
circular arc method
stochastic finite element method
To date, the stability of levees has been evaluated using the safety factor by seepage flow analysis and circular arc method. Because the safety allowance is estimated from the stability of levees which depend on the underground waters, it is necessary to evaluate the probability of seepage flow and the uncertainty of the resistance of levees quantitatively. In this study, the uncertainty of the geotechnical properties of levees was quantitatively evaluated, and the probabilistic estimates were made for the local failure and the global failure, assuming a circular slip surface. Specifically, the safety margin was evaluated by the failure probability and/or the reliability index by expressing the geotechnical parameters using the probabilistic model and the stochastic finite element method. The action of seepage flow and the rise of water level of the river caused by rainfall were deterministically calculated by the transient analysis.
Departmental Bulletin Paper