微分方程式による日本の人口変動モデル

URI http://harp.lib.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/jcga/metadata/11842
File
Title
微分方程式による日本の人口変動モデル
Title Alternative
On a Model of Population Growth in Japan with Differential Equations
Author
氏名 河本 直紀
ヨミ カワモト ナオキ
別名 Kawamoto Naoki
Subject
population
Malthusian model
differential equation
linear approximation
Abstract

In Japan, the population has been recorded from 1872. It is well known that the Malthusian model can be applied until around 1970, but afterward the growth rate is declining and the result of the model is different from the real population. We consider the time dependent growth rate and construct a more realistic model. The growth rate is approximated by linear functions of time, determined from the data. The whole period from 1872 till 2009 is divided into two parts by the year 1973. For each period we take the linear approximation of the growth rate. Our model can reproduce the population in Japan fairly well, and we can estimate the future population.

Journal Title
海上保安大学校研究報告, 理工学系
Volume
55
Issue
1-2
Spage
45
Epage
48
Published Date
2012-03-30
Publisher
海上保安大学校
ISSN
0287-2951
NCID
AN10088865
Self DOI
NAID
40019328948
Language
jpn
NIIType
Departmental Bulletin Paper
Text Version
出版社版
Sort Key
06
Old URI
Set
jcga